12-04-2007

Ruling party’s May 1 proposals may be light at end of tunnel

By Jehan Perera

The latest claymore mining of a civilian bus in the north brings the
civilian death toll in the past fortnight to nearly 40. Earlier incidents
were the bomb blast inside a bus that killed 16 civilians, nearly all
women and children, and the two incidents of killings of migrant workers
on tsunami reconstruction projects and farmers in the east. Although the
LTTE has denied its culpability in these attacks, there is little reason
to doubt their agency in these killings.

The LTTE may justify their killings to their constituencies on the grounds
that they are retaliating against similar killings of Tamil civilians by
the Sri Lankan military. The heavy airforce bombing and artillery shelling
of LTTE-held areas is likely to have exacted a considerable civilian toll
over the past several months.

Government claims of being in control of the east following its recent
military victories notwithstanding, the LTTE is demonstrating its enduring
ability to be destructive when it is being militarily marginalised.
However it is not only the brutality of the civilian killings that evokes
memories of earlier phases of the conflict. The response of the government
forces to the civilian population is also reminiscent of past practices.
Cordon and search operations in which large numbers of people are taken
into custody are now becoming routine. People are questioned and those
deemed to have some connection with the LTTE are kept behind. This process
can take days or weeks. As a result there is a climate of fear and
intimidation amongst the people.

The evidence on the ground demonstrates that the confrontation between the
government and LTTE is getting uglier in terms of the abuses of human
rights. The claims of the government to have taken control of territory
previously held by the LTTE have not translated into greater security for
the people. There is an arguable parallel to the replacement of the
tyranny of the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq with the near anarchy of the
present American military occupation. But the Iraq experience suggests
that the international community will support, or acquiesce in measures to
rid a society of unelected tyrants and militant organisations at any cost.

The LTTE’s track record of violence and intransigence appears to have led
to a consensus amongst the powerful countries of the world that a decisive
weakening of the LTTE’s military capacity is necessary for a viable
political solution to emerge in Sri Lanka. The manner in which the LTTE
ensured the electoral defeat of presidential candidate Ranil
Wickremesinghe who pledged to revive the Norwegian-facilitated peace
process has severely undermined whatever confidence there once was in the
LTTE’s commitment to a peace process that has Sri Lanka’s unity as one of
its goals.

On the other hand, the allegations that have recently been made from
within the government’s own ranks that the LTTE accepted money from the
ruling party to halt the democratic process in the north and east during
the Presidential election is an indictment on the democratic credentials
of the leadership of the government as well.

International concern

The primary interest of the big powers is the preservation of security in
the world, and also in the south Asian region. The presence of an armed
LTTE in the north and east of Sri Lanka which has forged links with a
variety of insurgent and underground groups is unacceptable to the big
powers. While they have no problem with the Tamil people of Sri Lanka
obtaining their just democratic rights within a united Sri Lanka, they all
have a problem with an unelected and heavily armed LTTE becoming the
dominant party in the north and east. The LTTE may not pose a direct
security threat at the present time to the international community, but
its links with groups do constitute such an immediate and present threat.

In recent times the Indian government has joined the Chinese and Pakistani
governments in providing military assistance to Sri Lanka. The
controversial radar system that had been sent for repairs on the night of
the fateful Air Tiger attack on the airforce base at Katunayake is just
one example of Indian military assistance. Additionally, it appears that
India is providing the Sri Lankan military with valuable information that
has led to the destruction of many shiploads of LTTE weapons being
smuggled into the country. The recent efforts by the French law
enforcement authorities to track down LTTE fund raisers in that country,
and the arrest of several key figures there, could herald the beginning of
coordinated action to restrict LTTE fund raising abroad. US law
enforcement agencies have busted another LTTE arms smuggling effort.

On the other hand, it is likely that the international community would be
prepared to encourage the LTTE to transform itself to become a major
political actor in the north and east provided it decommissions its
weapons and accepts to play by the rules of a democratic society. The
requirement of the big powers to see the LTTE diminished as a military
force is at the root of international reluctance to take action against
the government for its own acts of commission and omission with regard to
the prevailing high level of human rights abuses in the country. The
contrast between the effectiveness of the human rights campaigns by
Amnesty International in the early 1990s and today is due to this factor.
In 1991 when Amnesty International gave the government a list of 31
recommendations with regard to the control of human rights abuses, the
government tamely accepted 30 of them. The government at that time was
headed by President Ranasinghe Premadasa, a strong willed leader who had
even expelled the British High Commissioner on the charge of interfering
in local politics. But President Premadasa’s government realised that the
international community was united on the issue of human rights abuses in
the aftermath of the military subjugation of the JVP insurrection. The
government had no choice but to accept the Amnesty International
conditions in order to continue to retain its place amongst the
international community and obtain international assistance for
development.

Today, however, with the LTTE still undefeated, international non
governmental pressure to halt human rights abuses that accompanies
military action do not appear to be holding back the Sri Lankan
government. International human rights organisations hav not proven
successful in their efforts to pressurise the government and LTTE to
subscribe to internationally accepted human rights standards. The UN Human
Rights Commission in Geneva has decided to postpone their decision on Sri
Lanka until a later time. This is because many of the international
governments that constitute the UN bodies are themselves willing to play
down the issues of human rights in the face of threats to the security of
a fellow nation state.

Amnesty International’s high profile campaign against human rights abuses
in Sri Lanka that they intended to centre around the World Cup cricket
tournament has not achieved its objectives. On the contrary it has given
the Sri Lankan government an opportunity to discredit international NGOs
and their local partners as being anti-Sri Lanka and inappropriately
mixing sports and politics. The absence of effective international
pressure upon the government could also lead it to believe that it has a
relatively free hand in charting a military strategy to subjugate the
LTTE. Herein lies the danger of over-kill and humanitarian disaster that
could change the international environment in a manner that is adverse to
the country.

Dangerous phase

The next phase of a military solution would necessarily be to take the war
to the north. However, the battle for the north will very likely be much
more costly than the one in the east. The LTTE has consolidated its forces
in the north, and is not divided in the north as it was in the east. In
addition, the LTTE can be expected to target the civilian population
outside the north and east in a desperate effort to divert the
government’s attention and also to take vengeance. If the civilian toll is
heavy, and if there is a large scale influx of refugees into neigbouring
India, the international consensus on giving the government a free hand in
the war could cease. This could bring about a dangerous and uncertain
phase.

The best way for the country to avoid being taken to the precipice of
human disaster is for the government to escalate its political efforts to
generate an acceptable political framework that would meet Tamil
aspirations, while simultaneously seeking ways to de-escalate its military
confrontations with the LTTE, particularly in the north.

The present government’s willingness to stand up to the LTTE without
backing down has won it the support of the majority of Sri Lankan people
and also the big powers in the international community. What needs to be
questioned, however, is the government’s primary reliance on military
confrontation rather than political reform that addresses the roots of
Tamil grievance that gave birth to the LTTE. By summoning the All Party
Conference several months ago to come up with a political solution,
President Mahinda Rajapaksa laid the foundation for a positive political
initiative.

President Rajapaksa now needs to capitalise on his genuine popularity with
the Sinhalese masses to take on the great challenge of speaking up for a
political solution that provides the justice that Tamils and other ethnic
minorities are looking for. Those who seek a peaceful resolution of the
current conflict will be hoping that the ruling party’s pledge to come up
with its proposals for a political framework May 1, will be one that has
the potential to win the support of the Tamil people and eliminates the
rationale of continued LTTE violence to achieve that objective.

The LTTE’s positive response to the prospect of political negotiations
that go beyond military battlefield issues will also be crucial and can
see the dawn of a new future. It is said that LTTE leader Velupillai
Pirapaharan’s son recently returned to the Wanni with a hi tech degree
from an European university to head the computer and research wing of the
LTTE. There is no denying the technical skills that permitted the Air
Tiger attack on Katunayake and the return back to base. Skills such as
these should be used for the constructive purpose of Sri Lanka’s national
development that includes the north and east rather than the destructive
one of perpetuating an impossible and unending struggle.

Source-SLDF