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27-04-2006

Suicide bomber blows up Sri Lanka's peace process

By M.R. Narayan Swamy, Indo-Asian News Service

Less than 24 hours after India urged Sri Lanka and the Tamil Tiger guerrillas to strictly adhere to the Norwegian-brokered ceasefire, a woman suicide bomber almost killed the island's army chief in a meticulous operation that was capable of being carried out only by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). The fireball of red and orange that left Lt. Gen. Sarath Fonseka battling for life also killed several people, including the woman strapped with explosives and pretending to be pregnant. But the biggest casualty of the Tuesday strike was the Norway-brokered peace process.

If the LTTE did carry out the suicide attack, the seeds for it would have been laid a long time ago, even while it was seriously engaged with the various players in the peace process. Lt. Gen. Fonseka was picked for the post soon after Mahinda Rajapakse became president in November. The army chief was described as one who desired a hard line vis-à-vis the Tigers. He advocated a strategy that advocated suffocating the LTTE by teaming up with the breakaway Tiger group led by Karuna. He would have been targeted only for this reason.

From previous cases it can be safely assumed that LTTE operatives would have made a thorough study of Gen. Fonseka's movements and concluded that the best way to take him out was at his own supposedly secure army headquarters. The suicide bomber (who would have belonged to the Black Tigers) would have been told about the layout of the army headquarters and the car the army chief uses. In line with the LTTE folklore, she would have had one last supper with Tigers chief Velupillai Prabhakaran before making her way to Colombo for her final mission.

The suicide attack came just weeks after Canada outlawed the LTTE as a terrorist organization and days after Sri Lanka publicly called upon the 25-nation European Union to follow suit. A European Union ban would undoubtedly be a blow to the Tigers, whose International Secretariat is located in Paris and who have a string of offices all over the continent. Europe is also home to thousands of Sri Lankan Tamils, many of who fund the Tigers.

But if the LTTE still carried out the suicide bombing, then it only proves what has been long suspected: beyond a point, the Tigers care two hoots about international opinion. The US, one of the key members of the co-chairs to Sri Lanka's peace process (besides the European Union, Japan and Norway), has in recent times taken a particularly tough stand vis-à-vis the LTTE. Western countries have in recent times repeatedly denounced the LTTE as terrorist.

Since the London tube bombings of July 2005, Britain has banned even public events linked to LTTE. And since the assassination in August of Sri Lankan foreign minister Lakshman Kadirgamar, countries like Switzerland have cut the number of visas given to Sri Lankan Tamils. As for India, it has made clear its anathema to the LTTE. For the LTTE there is thus nothing to be gained further from the peace process diplomatically.

Militarily and financially, the four years of peace process have proved a windfall for the Tigers. On both counts, the LTTE has strengthened itself enormously although Karuna's split has weakened it. But those mocking at the LTTE's incipient air force forget that its naval wing, Sea Tigers, also began with a handful of boats - before emerging as a serious threat to the Sri Lankan military. Look at it from the LTTE's point of view: it has not evolved from a rag tag group in the 1970s to what it is now, merely to accept Sri Lanka's sovereignty!

When Norway began its mediation in Sri Lanka, India's then foreign minister Jaswant Singh had a friendly warning for the Norwegians. "We wish you all the best," he said. "But please remember that it is not going to be an easy job."

An Indian diplomat was more blunt with Erik Solheim, Norway's special envoy. "The Tigers took us for a ride, the same may happen to you," he cautioned. The reality is that Prabhakaran is determined to carve out Tamil Eelam, knowing fully well that no country is going to come to Sri Lanka's aid if a full-scale war erupts again. The LTTE is not going to allow anyone, the international community included, to preside over the liquidation of the de facto Tamil Eelam that exists today in the north of Sri Lanka.

Source-Indo-Asian News Service